This study investigates the dynamics of drought characteristics in Iran under historical (1966–2019) and future (2020–2050) con ditions using the SSP2- 4.5 scenario. Four drought characteristics—severity, duration, magnitude, and peak intensity—were an alysed through the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and copula- based multivariate models. Data from 39 synoptic stations were utilised, with projections downscaled from the HadGEM3- GC31- LL model using LARS- WG. The results show a general reduction in drought severity, duration, and magnitude under the SSP2- 4.5 scenario. The copula- based analysis demonstrated that the T- copula was the optimal fit for 96% of stations in the future period, compared to 54% in the historical period. This un derscores its ability to capture the dependencies among drought characteristics, particularly under changing climatic conditions. Conditional probabilities and risks for 20- year return periods showed an increase under SSP2- 4.5, indicating a higher likeli hood of less severe but more frequent drought events within shorter timeframes. Conversely, for 50- year return periods, severe droughts remain rare but show a moderate increase in probability and risk compared to the historical period. These findings emphasise the need for region- specific adaptation strategies to address increasing drought risks and disparities under future climate scenarios.
